User Tag List

Results 1 to 8 of 8

Thread: Has Cummings blown it for Boris?. Doesnt look it......

  1. #1
    Senior Member Achievements:
    50000 Experience Points3 months registered
    Overall activity: 7.0%

    UKSmartypants's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Posts
    2,421
    Thanks
    574
    Thanked: 2,577
    Rep Power
    4625095

    Has Cummings blown it for Boris?. Doesnt look it......

    Boris Johnson just lost the next election”. That was one view in the aftermath of the revelation that Dominic Cummings, the Prime Minister’s senior advisor, had violated the rules of the lockdown.

    It was echoed by others. Writing in the Observer, Andrew Rawnsley contended that the Cummings episode ticked all three boxes that determine whether or not scandals evolve into a ‘consequential episode’: it cut through in a big way; it changed how people see the government; and it redefined public opinion in a way that is “enduringly bad”.

    There is no doubt that the scandal met some of Rawnsley’s criteria. Lots of people did notice the story and when they were asked whether or not they thought Cummings should have been sacked, most said yes. The general violation of our collective sense of ‘fair play’, long seen as a key ingredient of British culture, has also impacted the polls.

    In the week before the story broke, Johnson’s party averaged 48% of the vote and a 15-point lead; in the polls since they have averaged 43% of the vote and a 6-point lead. If you want to put a figure on the cost of Cummings, then it is around 5 percentage points.

    But even so, is this really the game-changer that many think? I’m not convinced. For one thing, we often award scandals a level of importance that is wholly disproportionate to their actual significance. We forget this now, but the Conservatives were re-elected after the Suez crisis, Labour were re-elected after David Kelly and Iraq, and Donald Trump was elected after boasting about groping women.

    Even far-reaching scandals like the expenses fiasco, which would presumably also meet Rawnsley’s criteria, turned out to have only a fleeting impact; one study found ‘no evidence of any lasting effect’.

    Then there is the way the Cummings scandal is already being diluted by our media’s very different treatment of the George Floyd protests. Even if you support the protestors who demonstrate purpose, as I do, the difference in the coverage is striking.

    Just a week after its spluttering outrage over the Cummings affair, BBC’s News at Ten moved to covering mass protests in London while not even mentioning social distancing at all. “Ah but that is false equivalence,” said one person on Twitter.

    Why is it false equivalence? Are we incapable of protesting while distancing? Are we allowed to do as we please so long as the cause is considered virtuous? One by-product of the British cherishing fair play is that they loathe hypocrisy.

    But there are also other, more important reasons to be sceptical about the duration of the Cummings effect. In today’s more polarised political age, in which our values and identities keep us glued to our party of choice and provide a filter through which we interpret events, the idea that scandals will have such far-reaching effects feels increasingly implausible.

    You can already see it in the polls. Perhaps what is so striking is not that the Conservatives have lost a few points, but rather how stable their support has been. Throughout the entire Covid crisis, and the Cummings episode, the incumbent party has not once dropped below 40%, a threshold that many past Conservative leaders would have given an arm for.

    As I write, the party is averaging exactly the same level of support that it won at the election six months ago. The ‘rally effect’ that saw voters unite around the Government in the early phase of the crisis has worn off. But a disaster for Johnson? I don’t think so.

    Nor is there much evidence that the ‘Johnson coalition’ — that curious alliance between blue-collar workers and southern conservatives — has been disrupted. In the latest post-scandal polls ,the Conservatives not only hold a solid-lead over Labour but a 63-point lead among Leavers, a 12-point lead among the working-class, and a 26-point lead in non-London, southern England.

    If Johnson can hold these kinds of leads after the generally poor management of the coronavirus crisis, and the scandal over Cummings, then this suggests that his appeal runs deep.

    It also speaks to a more important point that has largely been ignored amid all the hysteria and hype. Labour’s position in the polls has improved but there remains little evidence that it has done so among the key groups that will decide the next election.

    The party is currently picking off low-hanging fruit; younger voters, ex-Liberal Democrats, disillusioned Remainers and Londoners. Their support is generally up across the board, but we have yet to see anything like the gains that will be needed to turn this ship around. Many people who have spent the past week talking about the ‘game changer’ already live in Labour seats. Many have yet to grasp the true scale of the challenge before them in order to bring about a return to majority government. I have yet to see a single serious proposal for winning back the working-class.

    One reason why Boris Johnson has more breathing space than his critics would have you believe is because Labour has lost not one but two Red Walls. The first fell in Scotland; the second in northern England. In 2010, the election before Keir Starmer was selected to represent his north London constituents, Labour won 42% of the vote in Scotland and 41 seats. By 2019, it was down to less than 19% of the vote and just one seat.

    This week, in the polls, there is absolutely no evidence of a recovery in Scotland. The party is in a distant third place, languishing on 13% of the vote; it is 5-points adrift of where Labour was in December, 9-points adrift of the Tories and 41-points adrift of the SNP.

    This brings us to the second massive problem that has haunted the Labour Party for nearly two decades and will ultimately decide whether or not Starmer will become Prime Minister: England.

    Take away seats in London, university towns and in highly diverse areas of the country, most of which Labour already controls, and the party is left with a rather barren landscape. Labour has not won the popular vote in England since 2001. Let me say that again. Labour has not won the popular vote in England since 2001. By the next election, Labour will not won have won the vote among the English for nearly a quarter-century.

    And why is this? Most of these voters are conflicted or, in academic jargon, ‘cross-pressured’. They lean Left on the economy but lean Right on culture. So far, Labour has shown zero interest in speaking to them on the culture dimension because in the world of the Labour Party, to do so is tantamount to pandering to racism


    And so when these socially conservative English voters who don’t live in London looked at Labour’s general wokery — David Lammy’s endless virtue-signalling on Twitter, the Corbynistas praising ‘Luxury Communism’ and with Emily Thornberry’s dismissal still ringing in their ear — they walked into the polling station and said ‘no thanks’ to Labour. The party’s vote in England crashed by 8-points in 2019.


    In the latest YouGov, Labour still trails Boris Johnson and his party by a sobering 26-points across southern England. With Scotland gone, and the SNP’s social liberalism a formidable barrier to any recovery, Keir Starmer and Labour somehow have to find a way of staging a rather miraculous advance in England and Wales.


    This means building a Red Bridge to the Red Wall. But that means talking to those English who exhibit everything that makes Labour’s London-centric MPs and activists so uncomfortable: a strong attachment to an English rather than a British identity; a desire to slow (not end) immigration; a strong emphasis on the nation; a firm desire to uphold national traditions, myths and symbols; and a quiet yet deep patriotism that is qualitatively distinct from the ‘ethnic nationalism’ and ‘racism’ that Labour associate with England. It is a world that puts flag and family first and which has almost no interest in joining The Great Awokening. And it would most likely give Cummings a free pass rather than open the door to a replay of the New Labour years.


    Will Keir Starmer, who pushed so hard for a second referendum, be able to recapture this territory? Does Labour have the vocabulary that is required to speak to the English who have spent the past decade putting their cultural concerns ahead of their economic concerns? And how can Labour build a solid and sustainable bridge between Remainia and Leave Land? These are the questions that will decide the next election, not the antics of individual advisors.


    Not even Dom Cummings can help Labour - UnHerd



    (If I can add a note of explanation: The only reason we EVER had Labour socialist governments in the UK was because Labour had an automatic 56 seat advantage, because it ALWAYS used to win all 56 seats in Scotland. Then Wee Jimmy Krankie Sturgeon and her nasty SNP came along and took that all away, and made it clear they wern't interested in playing in Labours back yard anymore, . so Labour are now having to win English elections on - heaven forbid - a LEVEL PLAYING FIELD, and its has seriously crippled them electorally.)
    Last edited by UKSmartypants; 06-06-2020 at 06:55 AM.

  2. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to UKSmartypants For This Useful Post:

    dinosaur (06-06-2020),Foghorn (06-06-2020)

  3. #2
    VIP Forum Donor
    V.I.P
    Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsVeteranTagger First Class
    Overall activity: 45.0%

    dinosaur's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Posts
    6,785
    Thanks
    11,027
    Thanked: 13,787
    Rep Power
    21474846


    On this side of the pond, we either have too much of the British in us, or not enough. I can't figure it out.

    My grandparents were from the Midlands. I think my grandpa liked English politics about as much as he liked the Irish.

  4. #3
    V.I.P. V.I.P Achievements:
    50000 Experience Points3 months registeredSocial
    Overall activity: 53.0%

    donttread's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2019
    Posts
    4,273
    Thanks
    1,608
    Thanked: 3,351
    Rep Power
    6876465
    Quote Originally Posted by UKSmartypants View Post
    Boris Johnson just lost the next election”. That was one view in the aftermath of the revelation that Dominic Cummings, the Prime Minister’s senior advisor, had violated the rules of the lockdown.

    It was echoed by others. Writing in the Observer, Andrew Rawnsley contended that the Cummings episode ticked all three boxes that determine whether or not scandals evolve into a ‘consequential episode’: it cut through in a big way; it changed how people see the government; and it redefined public opinion in a way that is “enduringly bad”.

    There is no doubt that the scandal met some of Rawnsley’s criteria. Lots of people did notice the story and when they were asked whether or not they thought Cummings should have been sacked, most said yes. The general violation of our collective sense of ‘fair play’, long seen as a key ingredient of British culture, has also impacted the polls.

    In the week before the story broke, Johnson’s party averaged 48% of the vote and a 15-point lead; in the polls since they have averaged 43% of the vote and a 6-point lead. If you want to put a figure on the cost of Cummings, then it is around 5 percentage points.

    But even so, is this really the game-changer that many think? I’m not convinced. For one thing, we often award scandals a level of importance that is wholly disproportionate to their actual significance. We forget this now, but the Conservatives were re-elected after the Suez crisis, Labour were re-elected after David Kelly and Iraq, and Donald Trump was elected after boasting about groping women.

    Even far-reaching scandals like the expenses fiasco, which would presumably also meet Rawnsley’s criteria, turned out to have only a fleeting impact; one study found ‘no evidence of any lasting effect’.

    Then there is the way the Cummings scandal is already being diluted by our media’s very different treatment of the George Floyd protests. Even if you support the protestors who demonstrate purpose, as I do, the difference in the coverage is striking.

    Just a week after its spluttering outrage over the Cummings affair, BBC’s News at Ten moved to covering mass protests in London while not even mentioning social distancing at all. “Ah but that is false equivalence,” said one person on Twitter.

    Why is it false equivalence? Are we incapable of protesting while distancing? Are we allowed to do as we please so long as the cause is considered virtuous? One by-product of the British cherishing fair play is that they loathe hypocrisy.

    But there are also other, more important reasons to be sceptical about the duration of the Cummings effect. In today’s more polarised political age, in which our values and identities keep us glued to our party of choice and provide a filter through which we interpret events, the idea that scandals will have such far-reaching effects feels increasingly implausible.

    You can already see it in the polls. Perhaps what is so striking is not that the Conservatives have lost a few points, but rather how stable their support has been. Throughout the entire Covid crisis, and the Cummings episode, the incumbent party has not once dropped below 40%, a threshold that many past Conservative leaders would have given an arm for.

    As I write, the party is averaging exactly the same level of support that it won at the election six months ago. The ‘rally effect’ that saw voters unite around the Government in the early phase of the crisis has worn off. But a disaster for Johnson? I don’t think so.

    Nor is there much evidence that the ‘Johnson coalition’ — that curious alliance between blue-collar workers and southern conservatives — has been disrupted. In the latest post-scandal polls ,the Conservatives not only hold a solid-lead over Labour but a 63-point lead among Leavers, a 12-point lead among the working-class, and a 26-point lead in non-London, southern England.

    If Johnson can hold these kinds of leads after the generally poor management of the coronavirus crisis, and the scandal over Cummings, then this suggests that his appeal runs deep.

    It also speaks to a more important point that has largely been ignored amid all the hysteria and hype. Labour’s position in the polls has improved but there remains little evidence that it has done so among the key groups that will decide the next election.

    The party is currently picking off low-hanging fruit; younger voters, ex-Liberal Democrats, disillusioned Remainers and Londoners. Their support is generally up across the board, but we have yet to see anything like the gains that will be needed to turn this ship around. Many people who have spent the past week talking about the ‘game changer’ already live in Labour seats. Many have yet to grasp the true scale of the challenge before them in order to bring about a return to majority government. I have yet to see a single serious proposal for winning back the working-class.

    One reason why Boris Johnson has more breathing space than his critics would have you believe is because Labour has lost not one but two Red Walls. The first fell in Scotland; the second in northern England. In 2010, the election before Keir Starmer was selected to represent his north London constituents, Labour won 42% of the vote in Scotland and 41 seats. By 2019, it was down to less than 19% of the vote and just one seat.

    This week, in the polls, there is absolutely no evidence of a recovery in Scotland. The party is in a distant third place, languishing on 13% of the vote; it is 5-points adrift of where Labour was in December, 9-points adrift of the Tories and 41-points adrift of the SNP.

    This brings us to the second massive problem that has haunted the Labour Party for nearly two decades and will ultimately decide whether or not Starmer will become Prime Minister: England.

    Take away seats in London, university towns and in highly diverse areas of the country, most of which Labour already controls, and the party is left with a rather barren landscape. Labour has not won the popular vote in England since 2001. Let me say that again. Labour has not won the popular vote in England since 2001. By the next election, Labour will not won have won the vote among the English for nearly a quarter-century.

    And why is this? Most of these voters are conflicted or, in academic jargon, ‘cross-pressured’. They lean Left on the economy but lean Right on culture. So far, Labour has shown zero interest in speaking to them on the culture dimension because in the world of the Labour Party, to do so is tantamount to pandering to racism


    And so when these socially conservative English voters who don’t live in London looked at Labour’s general wokery — David Lammy’s endless virtue-signalling on Twitter, the Corbynistas praising ‘Luxury Communism’ and with Emily Thornberry’s dismissal still ringing in their ear — they walked into the polling station and said ‘no thanks’ to Labour. The party’s vote in England crashed by 8-points in 2019.


    In the latest YouGov, Labour still trails Boris Johnson and his party by a sobering 26-points across southern England. With Scotland gone, and the SNP’s social liberalism a formidable barrier to any recovery, Keir Starmer and Labour somehow have to find a way of staging a rather miraculous advance in England and Wales.


    This means building a Red Bridge to the Red Wall. But that means talking to those English who exhibit everything that makes Labour’s London-centric MPs and activists so uncomfortable: a strong attachment to an English rather than a British identity; a desire to slow (not end) immigration; a strong emphasis on the nation; a firm desire to uphold national traditions, myths and symbols; and a quiet yet deep patriotism that is qualitatively distinct from the ‘ethnic nationalism’ and ‘racism’ that Labour associate with England. It is a world that puts flag and family first and which has almost no interest in joining The Great Awokening. And it would most likely give Cummings a free pass rather than open the door to a replay of the New Labour years.


    Will Keir Starmer, who pushed so hard for a second referendum, be able to recapture this territory? Does Labour have the vocabulary that is required to speak to the English who have spent the past decade putting their cultural concerns ahead of their economic concerns? And how can Labour build a solid and sustainable bridge between Remainia and Leave Land? These are the questions that will decide the next election, not the antics of individual advisors.


    Not even Dom Cummings can help Labour - UnHerd



    (If I can add a note of explanation: The only reason we EVER had Labour socialist governments in the UK was because Labour had an automatic 56 seat advantage, because it ALWAYS used to win all 56 seats in Scotland. Then Wee Jimmy Krankie Sturgeon and her nasty SNP came along and took that all away, and made it clear they wern't interested in playing in Labours back yard anymore, . so Labour are now having to win English elections on - heaven forbid - a LEVEL PLAYING FIELD, and its has seriously crippled them electorally.)


    Here in America we expect the elites to break the rules made for the peasants and we are usually proven correct. For example, King Andy's perfect hair at daily briefings doesn't even garner discussion.

    It is interesting that a social distancing breach brought down Ferguson, the man who's so called data plunged the world into panicdemic after he somehow survived predicting a flu as a plague of Biblical proportions!
    He invited his married lover for a little visit at his house during the lockdown and then sent her back to her husband and kids.
    You folks have some funny priorities over there. See the link below.





    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...igns-breaking/
    Last edited by donttread; 06-06-2020 at 07:36 AM.

  5. The Following User Says Thank You to donttread For This Useful Post:

    Foghorn (06-06-2020)

  6. #4
    V.I.P. V.I.P Achievements:
    50000 Experience PointsSocialVeteran
    Overall activity: 51.0%

    Foghorn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    6,836
    Thanks
    9,212
    Thanked: 9,684
    Rep Power
    15510010
    Last week I was checking out one of the London papers and the Dominic Cummings story seemed like big news, so I took the bait and kept reading.

    For the life of me I could not understand why a Page 3 story was being regarded as an earth-shattering bombshell. It's small potatoes.

  7. #5
    Senior Member Achievements:
    50000 Experience Points3 months registered
    Overall activity: 7.0%

    UKSmartypants's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Posts
    2,421
    Thanks
    574
    Thanked: 2,577
    Rep Power
    4625095
    Quote Originally Posted by donttread View Post
    It is interesting that a social distancing breach brought down Ferguson, the man who's so called data plunged the world into panicdemic after he somehow survived predicting a flu as a plague of Biblical proportions!
    He invited his married lover for a little visit at his house during the lockdown and then sent her back to her husband and kids.
    You folks have some funny priorities over there. See the link below.
    There was more to it than that as well. The woman he was knocking off on the side turned out to be a Hard left Activist, so the question now being asked was did she honey trap in in order to influence him and persuade him to recommend a draconian lockdown in some sort of attempt to help wreck capitalism in the UK. We KNOW that the hard left agenda.

    Quote Originally Posted by Foghorn View Post
    For the life of me I could not understand why a Page 3 story was being regarded as an earth-shattering bombshell. It's small potatoes.
    It is, but the lefty press and BBC milked it for al it was worth and kept it going as long as they could in hope of doing damage to the government and boris. The hard left hate Dom, he masterminded the campaign for a Leave Vote and also masterminded the 2019 election win. The guy exactly has the pulse of the people, and beats the left all the time, so they are desperate to get rid of him.


    The english have a strong sense of fair play. We expect people to obey the rules. Thus at the moment the country is divided into the (largely lefty) lockdown breakers and the largely leave lockdown obeyers. The footballer David Beckham blew his chances of getting knighthood when he used a trickster lawyer to TWICE get him off a speeding ban via a legal loophole. Had he just gritted his teeth and taken the (trivial) punishment, no one would have objected to him being Knighted. But he used his wealth to escape justice on what was really a trivial charge. That sort of thing doesnt go down well with the english.
    Last edited by UKSmartypants; 06-06-2020 at 11:14 AM.

  8. #6
    V.I.P. V.I.P Achievements:
    50000 Experience Points3 months registeredSocial
    Overall activity: 53.0%

    donttread's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2019
    Posts
    4,273
    Thanks
    1,608
    Thanked: 3,351
    Rep Power
    6876465
    Quote Originally Posted by UKSmartypants View Post
    There was more to it than that as well. The woman he was knocking off on the side turned out to be a Hard left Activist, so the question now being asked was did she honey trap in in order to influence him and persuade him to recommend a draconian lockdown in some sort of attempt to help wreck capitalism in the UK. We KNOW that the hard left agenda.



    It is, but the lefty press and BBC milked it for al it was worth and kept it going as long as they could in hope of doing damage to the government and boris. The hard left hate Dom, he masterminded the campaign for a Leave Vote and also masterminded the 2019 election win. The guy exactly has the pulse of the people, and beats the left all the time, so they are desperate to get rid of him.


    The english have a strong sense of fair play. We expect people to obey the rules. Thus at the moment the country is divided into the (largely lefty) lockdown breakers and the largely leave lockdown obeyers. The footballer David Beckham blew his chances of getting knighthood when he used a trickster lawyer to TWICE get him off a speeding ban via a legal loophole. Had he just gritted his teeth and taken the (trivial) punishment, no one would have objected to him being Knighted. But he used his wealth to escape justice on what was really a trivial charge. That sort of thing doesnt go down well with the english.

    Ahhh, that makes more sense. If that is the case her husband probably blessed her to go take one for the team! Why didn't she call me? I could make shit up for alittle honey! OL

  9. #7
    Senior Member Achievements:
    50000 Experience Points3 months registered
    Overall activity: 6.0%

    Dubler9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2020
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    520
    Thanks
    330
    Thanked: 510
    Rep Power
    2372982
    The question is - has Boris blown it for Boris? I dont think you would ever hear Trump blame one of his sidekicks for a malfunction in governance. The leader is always to blame. Johnson is not a leader of any caliber.
    Nothing will progress for the best until the people elect a leader, a true leader who puts the country and people first no matter what.
    How many people know that Cameron got rid of the Tribunal access for unfair treatment at work and he tried very hared to get rid of Judicial Review?? This is akin to a tyrant but the British people are so apathetic they did no know what Cameron was doing.

    “The worst form of inequality is to try to make unequal things equal.” – Aristotle


  10. #8
    Senior Member Achievements:
    50000 Experience Points3 months registered
    Overall activity: 7.0%

    UKSmartypants's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Posts
    2,421
    Thanks
    574
    Thanked: 2,577
    Rep Power
    4625095
    Quote Originally Posted by Dubler9 View Post
    The question is - has Boris blown it for Boris? I dont think you would ever hear Trump blame one of his sidekicks for a malfunction in governance. The leader is always to blame. Johnson is not a leader of any caliber.
    Nothing will progress for the best until the people elect a leader, a true leader who puts the country and people first no matter what.
    How many people know that Cameron got rid of the Tribunal access for unfair treatment at work and he tried very hared to get rid of Judicial Review?? This is akin to a tyrant but the British people are so apathetic they did no know what Cameron was doing.
    Um dont believe he did, i took my last employer to a Tribunal in 2013 for Unfair Dismissal, Illegal Dismissal and Disability Discrimination (they tried to sack me for daring to have bowel cancer), i took £15k off them. What DID occur was the removed legal aid for such cases, so you had to fund it yourself or find a no win no fee lawyer. Fortunately, my house insurance had a handy little clause that specifically said if i had to take someone to a tribunal they would pay or supply a hot shot barrister, which cost them £11,000 . Screw Insurance companies i have NO sympathy with THEM!

    And the Gov.uk website seems to think Industrial Tribunals still exist, it tells you how to take someone to one here:
    https://www.gov.uk/dismissal/what-to...oure-dismissed

    And we knew exactly what Cameron was up to when he came back emptied handed from the EU. We knew he was an Eu stooge going thru the motions. When he sent out a pro EU leaflet at the taxpayers expense, in order to circumvent Electoral Spending laws in the Referendum . We had Camerons number by then, and he knew it, thats why he threw the towel in and ran away. He knew he was a dead man walking electorally.

    Johnsons ratings in the polls are barely dented, he's extremely popular, stands by his word, and has the mood of the people, as witnessed by the swathes of people who voted for him giving him a stonking majority. If thats not a man of the people , what is? What else do you want out of a national leader?

    I really dont know what your issue is with Boris, but hes the most popular leader weve ever had since Maggie and Winston. Your analysis's of the situation in the UK so far have been way off the mark because you allow you hate of Boris to warp you view and incorrectly colour your assessment. People like Boris, he cleared out the remainers, and hes standing firm, wheres the beef?
    Last edited by UKSmartypants; 06-07-2020 at 07:25 AM.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •