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Thread: Hong Kong on the brink

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trinnity View Post
    China depends on capitalism now. They have a lot of debt too. They're not as all that as they have seemed. They've got a riot on their hands in HK. Barbarism at the hands of govt is out of fashion but Iran and China haven't gotten the memo. Previous American presidents kowtowed to these countries out of fear. That is o v e r.
    i got alittle Q1P.SI. these guys are good. the second President Trump was declared the winner, they entered the market to dump their chineese hotels. china has alot to understand. their artificial starting point for their currency upon jimmy carters allownce will be reversed now. no longer will the chinks assumption that as long as they get any return for that fake capital is better than nothing be tolerated by them. their gonna need to find better managers, and they just shunned hong kong. if they dont figger it out soon, nothing will be able to correct their imbalance.
    Last edited by jirqoadai; 08-06-2019 at 09:50 AM.
    sic semper tyrannis

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  3. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trinnity View Post
    You're usually spot on, but I disagree. China is in big trouble. Devaluing the yuan was a desperation move and Trump can't and won't budge. He's on the precipice of breaking them financially. They'll be seeing company bankruptcies pretty soon. The Chinese president is a paper tiger because financial realities are not in their favor. We can shift to other regions for goods. Indonesia. Viet Nam. Who knows, maybe even India. There are untapped markets.

    Trump's also puttin' the hurt on Iran and Russia. And it's working.
    I disagree with much of this. We're seeing China through the prism of our own Free Enterprise economy.

    China is not that. China is a crypto-socialist economy. These "private" businesses, are typically formed with the government as a silent partner - and the front, either a government player or someone connected. Nothing happens without the consent of government.

    These companies are formed; they license product from Western or Japanese companies...they contract a buyer, typically a Western firm that will remarket the product under their name. They make their offering quickly, in batch lots and then close down, often filing for liquidation. That way, they avoid Western litigation or trouble with their American/Japanese "partner." Then they re-form under a different name, with slightly-different product.

    I have seen this. Years ago I bought a Maytag branded freestanding room air conditioner. Made in China. Maytag, right? Gotta have SOME quality standards. I bought it in 2002, when I needed to sleep days, often, and needed bedroom A/C and couldn't get a window unit in.

    That thing lasted for about 200 hours. It probably would have failed within its warranty window except that it was stored for a long period while still "new." Not a coinky-dink that Maytag (or its corporate owners now) no longer offer that kind of thing. But...there are/were other marketers offering virtually the same model, cheaper, different name. Just looking for a new set of gulls.

    I also bought, barely-used, a Chinese motorcycle - a Suzuki-clone. Should have been good, right? The model on which it was based was one of Suzuki's most-durable. BUT...with 2500 miles...that's right, two-thousand-five-hundred miles...the engine imploded.

    The maker had disappeared, but the same clone was re-appearing with different re-marketers with an alleged different source company.

    So...point of this is...this won't hurt the Chinese economy. They don't understand capitalism. They understand CRONYISM, and they understand fraud very well.

    The devaluing of their currency is a temporary step and won't affect them. It's a counter-move to the United States. They couldn't care less about world currency markets. They do understand what is Real Money; and they are buying it (gold).

    China is not in economic desperation. They are in POLITICAL turmoil; this freedom thingy is getting inconvenient in Hong Kong; but if their export business slows down, they'll just start ordering more peons into the People's Liberation Army. They're probably doing that now, anyway.

    For years I've said: This Chinese-trade thing was a Pandora's Box that would be impossible to close. And I still hold that view.

  4. #23
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    I do agree the chi-com leaders are in trouble and panicking. And all it took was for Trump to say "no more ripping us off".

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    Quote Originally Posted by JustPassinThru View Post
    They do understand what is Real Money; and they are buying it (gold).

    Taxcutter asks:
    What are they buying it with? Devalued yuan?

    The Chinese are more like Japan in the 70s and 80s but without the Japanese mania for quality. The old saw about "cheap Japanese junk" stung the Japanese but not the Chinese.

    But by 1991 the Japanese banking system collapsed and they went into a recession they have only partially gotten out of.
    The Japanese and Chinese never write down bad paper. It's a matter of "face." So non-performing loans haunt them forever.

    The "full employment" policy of Xi is today's version of mao's "iron rice bowl" policy of the 1950s and 60s. After centuries of one famine after another that looked pretty good to the Chinese. Without it, no amount of repression would have held China together. Japan is historically very cohesive as one might expect of an island nation. In its long history, China has been united about 300 years and 200 of that was thanks to the Mongols. they have to keep the young workers of their coastal regions working or things start coming unglued.

    China will not win a trade war with the US. When you have an export-driven economy, your markets matter a lot. Germany bears huge taxation to keep the EU afloat because that maintains their main market. China has tried to generate internal consumption but it has only resulted in cities nobody lives in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Taxcutter View Post
    Taxcutter asks:
    What are they buying it with? Devalued yuan?
    With dollars.

    They trade us crappy goods for our crappy fiat, which nonetheless is accepted worldwide as the best crappy fiat-money on the planet. With those dollars, that they do NOT want to hold, they buy gold.

    This is not assumption or conjecture. This is documented. China wants to have the world's reserve currency, and plans to promote that on backing their currency in gold. Discarding the Keynesian concept of fiat.

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    if they were indeed buying gold, the NSRs on most mining operations would be owned by them.
    sic semper tyrannis

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    Last edited by JustPassinThru; 08-06-2019 at 01:10 PM.

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    In the last 6 months gold is up 4%, but still DOWN 18% from 5 years ago. That is a long recovery time and still hasn't recovered.

    The Chinese Yuan at 14 cents to the dollar and China's external only economy places the RMD as the reserve currency about 10 light years away.
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    if they are, theyre a dollar late and a day short. the US and canada have almost an unlimited source of gold. all those net smelter return rights were great investments. if you follow the pros, they disclose the
    future stoping area grades about to be extracted. plus the percentage of gravity only produced gold.
    it would be interesting if your articles disclosed exactly how much of that gold was sold as dore, and how much as " consentrate ".
    sic semper tyrannis

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan40 View Post
    In the last 6 months gold is up 4%, but still DOWN 18% from 5 years ago. That is a long recovery time and still hasn't recovered.
    It's ahead of inflation from 2007.

    That's the purpose of gold - protect wealth. When banks pay token interest (because the Fed Discount Rate is Zero or near-zero) and Treasury bills pay less than the ADMITTED rate of inflation; when stocks are climbing only because of banks' proprietary accounts, with some mutual-fund money coming in...stocks in businesses that have never made money, probably cannot; stocks with Price-Earnings ratios of over 40...it's a bubble.

    You of course can make money in this stock market, if you sell at the top of the bubble. But they don't ring a bell, even if the pull-down is deliberate. Which it probably will be this time, since it's a handful of whales - major banking conglomerates - driving this bubblicious rising of the indexes.

    There is NO place to park money today to get the kind of opportunity there was 20 years ago. Because it's now a rigged, Financialized market. I can look at business plans. I can see past performance and profits. I can NOT predict the caprices of the Fed Chairman or the Plunge Protection Team, or of the Bankster-Account Executives at JPMorganChase or WellsFargo.
    Last edited by JustPassinThru; 08-06-2019 at 06:07 PM.

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