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Thread: A Primer on the Coming Crash

  1. #41
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    A return? Or an appreciation based on market prices?
    I don't know ANYTHING other than a Ponzi Scheme, a Madoff-style fund, that's paying 12 percent.

    Like I said, our first 20 or so years in the stock market we averaged 15%. Now I guess that you could call that appreciated 15% because we didn't sell but those were the numbers. And the last quoted number that I saw for an "average" return for the stock market was 12%. I believe that because of our average number. Now does it sometime drop (like a rock), heck yes. During the last mini crash we dropped 90,000 pretty darn quick. A year later we were up 120,000 because we just stayed in & did nothing. Gold can do the same thing. I was invested in gold for a whole 2 days (on a hunch). Two days later when I got out of it I was down 20%. That was back when some country said that they were leaving the gold standard & selling their gold. I was VERY unlucky to buy when I did. It would have obviously come back but I didn't have faith in it so I got out (stupid move & also stupid to get into something I really didn't know anything about).

    Simple facts of why I like stocks. Other than the first 2 years when we started we have never had less money than what we put in. And we range between a lot more (at the bottom of a drop) to a hell of a lot more in a normal market.

  2. #42
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    An appreciation gain is not a gain - unless it's realized; unless you actually sell.

    That's not a "return." The actual return is computed in price/earnings figures. A p/e of about 7 used to be considered good for blue-chips...invest your money and you'd be paid back in seven years.

    Today's high-fliers pay NO dividends, most have no PROFITS. Their value is going up because the banks are buying for their institutional portfolios; buying mindlessly along the indexes (DJ and others) and buying with money borrowed at near-zero from the Federal Reserve.

    That cannot last. Either the Fed quits printing and loaning out, or the dollar collapses. If the Fed does quit, the banks stop buying - because that money now COSTS - and then, with no market for Snap-Tesla-Amazon-Apple-Etc, the prices collapse.

    And your paper-profit becomes a real loss.
    Last edited by JustPassinThru; 07-27-2019 at 07:46 AM.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by JustPassinThru View Post
    An appreciation gain is not a gain - unless it's realized; unless you actually sell.
    That's not a "return." The actual return is computed in price/earnings figures. A p/e of about 7 used to be considered good for blue-chips...invest your money and you'd be paid back in seven years.
    Today's high-fliers pay NO dividends, most have no PROFITS. Their value is going up because the banks are buying for their institutional portfolios; buying mindlessly along the indexes (DJ and others) and buying with money borrowed at near-zero from the Federal Reserve.

    That cannot last. Either the Fed quits printing and loaning out, or the dollar collapses. If the Fed does quit, the banks stop buying - because that money now COSTS - and then, with no market for Snap-Tesla-Amazon-Apple-Etc, the prices collapse.

    And your paper-profit becomes a real loss.
    But if you have no profit until you sell couldn't the same thing be said about your gold investment? Your assuming that stocks will go down & I guess not come back up. Again I could assume the same thing about gold. History of something does not mean that it's a projection for the future. And I would "guess" that with golds rise in price there will be a much larger effort to substitute some other metal for many of it's uses. Just like now they don't use gold in filling anywhere near as much as they used to. So demand for "needed" uses (uses that gold is superior to other metals) could go down & that "might" lower the demand for gold. I don't know of course, just pointing out that things are changing. Heck I can remember back in uncertain markets people would flock to rare coins. That doesn't happen much anymore that I know of. Art too tends to go up but I don't know if it still does.

  4. #44
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    good gold mining and leaching companies always stick around.
    good gold mining and leaching companies who have game changing
    advances in regent aplications are the most capable of distributing
    dividends.
    theres about thirty companies out there that during a 29 like crash,
    will not only survive but thrive, while keeping their dividend the same.
    some of those may curtail the dividend but not cut it.
    commodities that will never conpletely go out the window.
    insurance products, pink diamonds, gold, silver, zinc, copper, cobalt
    mo. the last is critical to catcracking hydrocarbons. real rich people
    will always be rich. the stocks they hold will be for a reason. replenishment
    of cash.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Tex View Post
    But if you have no profit until you sell couldn't the same thing be said about your gold investment?
    Yes. But gold is not an investment - it's ownership of a traditional form of money.

    Stocks...Tesla is only worth what someone will pay for it. When the Fed enables the government to run huge budget defecits, and covers it with money printing, and sends that New Money to the banks who pour it into the Dow...and the 23-year-old Account Executives put it into Tesla, say...price of Tesla will rise.

    What happens when Tesla, which BURNS cash, runs OUT of cash? When it's UNDENIABLE that the business has squandered all its capital and its products are worthless and dangerous?

    A crash is what happens. As with Adelphia Cable 20 years ago...in the space of a week or so, the company goes from $250 a share to five-cents a share. And then files for bankruptcy and all shares are worthless.

    GOLD is not a profit-less corporation. It's not even a blue-chip business. Gold is money, for all of recorded history. And when the dollar is mismanaged to where it's worthless; when the zombie New Age businesses collapse, when the result of all this money-printing finally come to result...gold will still be there and be in greater demand, not less.

    Were we in better situation, it would be foolish to hold gold - but only because of lost opportunity cost. For example, anyone who held gold from 1990 to 2000, lost out on a LOT of opportunity in dollar-investment. But those people didn't actually lose their gold; and much of what they didn't make then, they did make up for a decade later.

  6. #46
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    JustPassinThru this has been a good discussion. I sure respect your view on the subject of gold (& other stuff). I just happen to disagree somewhat. I think that we have covered out thoughts pretty well so I'll drop out for a while. I hope that you do well with your gold. I know that I'm doing pretty well with my stocks. Talk later on something else.

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    Never buy bonds: Someone else's debt.
    The best I can do with my investments is 5 %. A finance company and my money has to stay for five years.
    Land: I'll look up the largest landlord in the country and it was a state that took the land for unpaid taxes.
    My blue chips pay about three percent.
    The guvment can borrow fifty bucks and pay back twenty five= inflation is legal

    the Government is now larger property owners than the states. The FEDS own 304 billion in real estate.
    Last edited by darroll; 07-27-2019 at 07:35 PM. Reason: look up

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