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Thread: A Primer on the Coming Crash

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Rivers View Post
    And, me!

    I have a large frost-free acreage...running streams...extremely fertile volcanic soil...and, the capacity to generate copious power. Honey, poultry, eggs, vegetables, orchard fruit, lamb/pork/beef...wild game...the ocean nearby. Way better than gold.

    "Dirt Poor" was just fine after the 1929 crash.

    Gold??? Why?????
    Trade.

    What is money? It's stored work-chits. In a substance-feudal world, the serf works for the Noble; and then the Noble feeds him and allows him a hovel or yurt.

    What if the serf is unusually productive? Sure, the Noble can promise him something extra in the future. What if the landlord forgets, or welches, or dies?

    How do you trade? Simple trade is simple. Take your eggs to the village square and trade for carrots.

    How do you save - either the eggs or the carrots - for future needs? Bitcoin? Paper fiat?

    Yes, the best thing to have is land and the skill to work it. But in today's world, many of us don't have land and cannot afford it in this bubble real-estate market, where land use is hyper-regulated.

    Even with land. How do you save for the future? Dollars? You surely have read how the Federal Reserve, which was created to be a CUSTODIAN of the dollar, is now DELIBERATELY creating inflation? WHILE artificially-low interest rates are being imposed, backed by Quantitative Easing? Sure. Make loans to member banks at a ridiculously-low rate...loans of newly-created dollars. Which those banks, and all banks with the ripple effect, charge very-low rates to loan out.

    Which means, SAVERS GET NOTHING. Half a percent - while inflation is (officially) running at 3 percent. When it's worked through, backwards, in a few years, we'll find the current inflation rate is probably closer to six percent.

    Gold protects saved wealth. Right now my gold has kept its value, right-on-par with inflation. No gain, but no loss in buying power.

    Stocks? Sure. The market is only going to go up. Last time I heard that, was 15 years ago - and then the market imploded with the election of a Marxist Preezy.

    I sold at a loss. I had NO IDEA how easily Wall Street would be corrupted by the money-printers and their offered crony-connections.

    Had I stayed in...yes, I might have had an increase. But only when selling. And only after Capital Gains taxes and brokerage fees were paid. And our current bubble is NOT sustainable. No one is going to tell little old me when to sell to beat the stampede out. They sure didn't, last time.

    And, will it all survive? The stockholders of GM thought so. So did the bond-holders of Chrysler. They got NOTHING, thanks to the Marxist Preezy.

    I have about a third of my savings in a mutual fund. Which has done extraordinarily poorly - because it doesn't have any of the high-flying, no-profit, New-Age trendy businesses in there, like Tesla and Snap and Amazon. That's not my risk appetite. Blue chips are NOT appreciating rapidly in price.

    My gold value has almost kept pace with my stock value.

    That's just my view and my experience. I'm not a Financial Planner and I don't even play one on TV. Everyone has to find their own road.

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  3. #32
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    Things like Ammo & Plywood & Onions will be easier trade items than Gold and gold is a tough barter item too

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gator Monroe View Post
    Things like Ammo & Plywood & Onions will be easier trade items than Gold and gold is a tough barter item too
    I've gone through this with people here before - IIRC, you among them.

    There are two stages to this. There's TSHTF - chaos. Gold is worthless. Money is worthless. Most trade goods are worthless. Food and sex will be worth something - but people won't trade for them, they'll kill for them. Rape and slaughter to loot.

    Then, later, there's stasis. The zombies are gone. Survivors emerge. You think in that world, printed-up dollars will have value?

    Probably ammo won't have so much value. Anyway. Hauling lumber or ammo is a JOB. There's no functioning industry - you're not going to burn gasoline to haul lumber out for trade. If you do, you'll either be waylaid for the gas in your vehicle - someone else needs it to run a tractor or generator - or else, your Community chief will have you arrested and executed for Waste.

    Money, of course is the answer. And printed up Federal Reserve Notes will be something no one wants.

    That leaves gold and silver.
    Last edited by JustPassinThru; 07-26-2019 at 10:23 AM.

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    Localized bartering & trade (Some cases neighborhood to neighborhood) will be king and People or Animal drawn cartage will be more & more utilized . There will be powerful Klans & Militias & family/Friends units , and rule of law will be reverse engineered and tweaked back into day to day lives of many . There will be trade of MANY ITEMS including larger items & quantities of items that will be facilitated and common .

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    Of course all of this stuff is up to our own person choices & we certainly have the right to make them.

    I will say that JustPassinThru has brought up the subject of gold investing before & I disagreed with it. However I did take the time to do the research on gold prices & was pretty darned shocked at it's gain. A person that had invested all of their money in gold 20, 30, 40 or even 50 years ago would be well off today. It turns out that it is a pretty good investment.

    Saying that however, I'm still not a buyer of gold. That's because an ounce of gold held 20, 30, 40 or even 50 years is still nothing but an ounce of gold. Because it doesn't turn into more than that ounce it limits your growth potential. You can never increase that weight by just letting it sit there. That to me is the major advantage of stocks, the fact that they pay dividends which can turn into more stock. Basically it's builds like compounding interest. I love that about stocks.

    As for the time period where stocks didn't perform, gold does that too every now & then. But I was in the stock market at that time & was dollar cost averaging (buying). I didn't & don't think that the short term movements of either gold or stocks should mean anything to anyone unless they are short term investors. And I believe that nobody should be a short term investor in either gold or stocks. To me what matters in either of them is what you invested in them & what they are worth when you sell them & want the money. Both have done will over the years. As I remember it stocks did edge out gold when I compared them but there are drawbacks to stocks that gold doesn't have.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Tex View Post
    Of course all of this stuff is up to our own person choices & we certainly have the right to make them.

    I will say that JustPassinThru has brought up the subject of gold investing before & I disagreed with it. However I did take the time to do the research on gold prices & was pretty darned shocked at it's gain. A person that had invested all of their money in gold 20, 30, 40 or even 50 years ago would be well off today. It turns out that it is a pretty good investment.

    Saying that however, I'm still not a buyer of gold. That's because an ounce of gold held 20, 30, 40 or even 50 years is still nothing but an ounce of gold. Because it doesn't turn into more than that ounce it limits your growth potential. You can never increase that weight by just letting it sit there. That to me is the major advantage of stocks, the fact that they pay dividends which can turn into more stock. Basically it's builds like compounding interest. I love that about stocks.

    As for the time period where stocks didn't perform, gold does that too every now & then. But I was in the stock market at that time & was dollar cost averaging (buying). I didn't & don't think that the short term movements of either gold or stocks should mean anything to anyone unless they are short term investors. And I believe that nobody should be a short term investor in either gold or stocks. To me what matters in either of them is what you invested in them & what they are worth when you sell them & want the money. Both have done will over the years. As I remember it stocks did edge out gold when I compared them but there are drawbacks to stocks that gold doesn't have.
    Bottom line is, we all gotta find our own road.

    This seems safest to me...by the time TSHTF for real, I may have gone completely dark. Gold will serve me well, living, socially, off the grid.

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    That to me is the major advantage of stocks, the fact that they pay dividends which can turn into more stock. Basically it's builds like compounding interest. I love that about stocks.
    If your p/e ratio is way up there (low returns vis-a-vis price) you won't be getting much compounding. This is why I say stocks are overpriced and we're in a bubble.

    MOREOVER. If your growth is two percent, and inflation at over three percent...where's the win?
    Last edited by JustPassinThru; 07-26-2019 at 04:21 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JustPassinThru View Post
    If your p/e ratio is way up there (low returns vis-a-vis price) you won't be getting much compounding. This is why I say stocks are overpriced and we're in a bubble.MOREOVER. If your growth is two percent, and inflation at over three percent...where's the win?
    The last I heard the "average" return was 12%. The last time I figured our average return since we started investing was about 10 years ago. We averaged 15% per year. Now I haven't figured the average return since then but we are up around 40% since then. I admit that a lot of it was luck because I moved 70% of my money overseas when Obama got elected for a 2nd term & had a great gain. Then I moved it back about 2 months after Trump took office.

    Now I generally don't go for things that dividends because I go for growth instead. My wife however does like dividends. She is very happen to get 4 or 6 extra shares every now & then worth $250 each. So far I've out gained her but we are close to even.

    As for us being in a bubble, I don't know but basically I lean the other way. Tax cuts for individuals gave people more money to spend & since America doesn't seem to save anymore they are spending. Then tax cuts let businesses keep more of their money which makes them more profitable. Put them keeping more of their money with people buying more of their products & it's a whole new ballgame as far as what their stocks are worth. Oh & on top of that Trump has cut a lot of regulations that they no longer have to spend money on to follow. I think businesses are healthier now because of those things. I guess that time will tell who's right about the economy.

  10. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Tex View Post
    The last I heard the "average" return was 12%.
    A return? Or an appreciation based on market prices?

    I don't know ANYTHING other than a Ponzi Scheme, a Madoff-style fund, that's paying 12 percent.

    These are BANKSTERS. The decent money-managers were driven out a decade ago; the whole field is Chicago Gangland territory. They lie and lie and LIE.

    Double-check what they tell you. Have them prove it. If you can't understand it, it's not because you're stupid - it's because they're using jargon and doublespeak to fog things.

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  12. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by JustPassinThru View Post
    Trade.

    What is money? It's stored work-chits. In a substance-feudal world, the serf works for the Noble; and then the Noble feeds him and allows him a hovel or yurt.

    What if the serf is unusually productive? Sure, the Noble can promise him something extra in the future. What if the landlord forgets, or welches, or dies?

    How do you trade? Simple trade is simple. Take your eggs to the village square and trade for carrots.

    How do you save - either the eggs or the carrots - for future needs? Bitcoin? Paper fiat?

    Yes, the best thing to have is land and the skill to work it. But in today's world, many of us don't have land and cannot afford it in this bubble real-estate market, where land use is hyper-regulated.

    Even with land. How do you save for the future? Dollars? You surely have read how the Federal Reserve, which was created to be a CUSTODIAN of the dollar, is now DELIBERATELY creating inflation? WHILE artificially-low interest rates are being imposed, backed by Quantitative Easing? Sure. Make loans to member banks at a ridiculously-low rate...loans of newly-created dollars. Which those banks, and all banks with the ripple effect, charge very-low rates to loan out.

    Which means, SAVERS GET NOTHING. Half a percent - while inflation is (officially) running at 3 percent. When it's worked through, backwards, in a few years, we'll find the current inflation rate is probably closer to six percent.

    Gold protects saved wealth. Right now my gold has kept its value, right-on-par with inflation. No gain, but no loss in buying power.

    Stocks? Sure. The market is only going to go up. Last time I heard that, was 15 years ago - and then the market imploded with the election of a Marxist Preezy.

    I sold at a loss. I had NO IDEA how easily Wall Street would be corrupted by the money-printers and their offered crony-connections.

    Had I stayed in...yes, I might have had an increase. But only when selling. And only after Capital Gains taxes and brokerage fees were paid. And our current bubble is NOT sustainable. No one is going to tell little old me when to sell to beat the stampede out. They sure didn't, last time.

    And, will it all survive? The stockholders of GM thought so. So did the bond-holders of Chrysler. They got NOTHING, thanks to the Marxist Preezy.

    I have about a third of my savings in a mutual fund. Which has done extraordinarily poorly - because it doesn't have any of the high-flying, no-profit, New-Age trendy businesses in there, like Tesla and Snap and Amazon. That's not my risk appetite. Blue chips are NOT appreciating rapidly in price.

    My gold value has almost kept pace with my stock value.

    That's just my view and my experience. I'm not a Financial Planner and I don't even play one on TV. Everyone has to find their own road.
    I have heavy equipment out, working new parcels. Americans...once they are 55...can get residency (no work permit, though). They buy bare parcels and start taking yearly vacations to develop the piece. At retirement time, they sell up in the US and put up a NICE home. The IRS even lets you deduct the inherent costs in going to inspect your land. That makes the yearly vacation...a deduction. Although they "can't work"...if they have orchards, livestock, etc...that's okay. So long as this new business is generated "off the land".

    There's a lot to learn from this country.....
    If you don't practice...you'll sound like it. And, if you don't tune, your life will sound like it, too. Listen to the intervals. That's where it all hides from you.....

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